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07-19-2008, 02:05 PM
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Weather
If you're not already following 94L, this would be a good time to start. HH is scheduled to be flying in at 2pm and it has already been speculated to have developed a COC.
I was reamed last time I posted about weather on another forum, so I'll leave the links et.al. out. Just a heads up.     
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07-19-2008, 02:33 PM
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Kathy....there ya go again with this lingo of yours (and not exactly reamed  )Looks like rain for Monday 
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07-19-2008, 06:54 PM
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Aw, c'mon Rick. You've lived down here HOW long and you don't know the lingo?
 HH is not HeadHunter or HowardHughes or HughHeffnor. It is Hurricane Hunters. They spent SIX hours in 94L today and have 6 more flights scheduled for tomorrow. They are VERY interested in this invest and are either taking it VERY seriously or using the data they gather for more accurate forecasting, tracking or simply data gathering. Once 94L passes us and heads to the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) it can only intensify and will probably slam either CONUS or northern Mexico. COC is center of convection (I think). When you have closed circulation you have a TD or TS depending on the wind speed. Right now winds of 94L are equal to a TS but since the HH's did not find a COC the NHC can't label 94L a TD. There is speculation that there is, in fact, a COC south of where the HH's were flying but they headed back before investigating it. It is entirely possible that 94L will go from invest to TS Dolly and completely bypass the TD stage. Hopefully it will continue to move quickly and not stall. We really need it to pass over and not take time to develop further. But I'm sure you already knew all that. You lived in one of the Carolina's didn't you? Are your folks doing ok with Cristobol?
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07-19-2008, 07:24 PM
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Is 94L that big mess around Cuba right now?
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07-19-2008, 07:45 PM
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No, 94L has been hammering Jamaica today and will move onto the Caymans tonight. There is current speculation that the COC has just shown itself on infrared (just as many speculated, the HH's concentrated on the wrong area of the invest) and we have TS Dolly. But the NHC probably won't upgrade her until the HH's investigate again. Can't remember if it will be at 9pm tonight or tomorrow at 8am.
Here is a good closeup Tropical Floater Two Rainbow Imagery - Satellite Services Division
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07-19-2008, 08:47 PM
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Wow when animated it looks like something that happens on Jupiter......That really is a huge storm.
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07-19-2008, 08:52 PM
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I think I'm going to crack open a bottle of wine and just watch the rainbow imagery on that link this evening.
 Thanks for the explanations of the acronyms. Very helpful. I've been here long enough where I should have been familiar with those terms as well, but alas, I did not.
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07-20-2008, 12:14 AM
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94L
 Well if it follows the GFDL we are going to be right in the thick of things. If we follow the other predictions we will be out of harms way, so to speak. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 40-45 MPH TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL AFFECT JAMAICA...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  Atlantic Graphical TWO Area 1 closeup      HHHMMMMM  which way will it go.And another point of view. The low shear combined with the warm (28.5°C) water of the Western Caribbean should allow 94L to finally organize into a tropical depression by Sunday. NHC is giving 94L a high (>50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. The disturbance has time to potentially strengthen into a tropical storm with 50 mph winds before coming ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula sometime between Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Passage over the Yucatan will no doubt significantly disrupt what should be a relatively weak system, and it is unclear what threat, if any, the storm will pose to the Gulf of Mexico coast. Once it does cross into the Gulf, wind shear should be low enough to permit development. The models favor a second Mexican landfall just south of Brownsville, Texas. There is a excellent chance that 94L will bring welcome drought relief to the parched regions of Southern Texas and northern Mexico along its path, regardless of whether the system develops into a tropical storm.
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07-20-2008, 10:53 AM
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It's just been named as TS Dolly. Apparently winds will be high tonight!
Supposed to have moved along pretty much by tomorrow tho. Hope so! We'll postpone our trip to Tulum today.  I think we'll head out to Kool tho, and see what's up.
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[i]The way to gain a good reputation, is to endeavor to be what you desire to appear. - Socrates [i]..  My Blog Where I Write Stuff .
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07-20-2008, 01:03 PM
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Going to windy tonight and tomorrow morning, better put those loose things away.
 Satellite loops show a large area of intense thunderstorms lies to the north of >Dolly's center, and these thunderstorms will bring heavy rains of 4-8" today and tomorrow to the Cayman Islands, Western Cuba, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula, including Cancun and Cozumel. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows a large are of tropical storm force winds affecting the Western Caribbean. There was no closed circulation at the time of the QuikSCAT pass, but the Hurricane Hunters have since found a closed circulation, which one can also see on visible satellite loops. Heavy thunderstorm activity is now starting to build near the center of Dolly, which is the hallmark of an intensifying tropical cyclone. The upper-level low that prevented Dolly from developing a closed circulation has weakened considerably over the past day, and will continue to weaken and slide southwestward out of Dolly's way today. This will create a low-shear environment for Dolly to intensify in. With very warm waters of 28.5°C ahead of it extending to great depth, Dolly is expected to intensify right up until landfall tonight over the Yucatan Peninsula. It is unlikely Dolly has time to reach hurricane status today, but a 60 mph tropical storm is possible tonight at landfall. Passage over the Yucatan will disrupt Dolly, which should need a day or so to recover once it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico. Steering currents will weaken once it does emerge, and Dolly will probably have at least two days over the warm waters of the Gulf before making landfall near the Texas/Mexico border Wednesday night or Thursday morning. This may allow Dolly to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the GFDL model. Rainfall amounts at landfall in Texas and northern Mexico are predicted to be in the 2-8" range, according to the HWRF and GFDL models.
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07-20-2008, 02:14 PM
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If you're in the area and can get SolEstereo, you can get updates. As of 2pm (their latest update), we (Solidaridad, Benito Juarez y Cozumel municipalities) are under Alert Yellow. At 4:30pm (next update) they expect it to be Alert Orange. At 7:30pm (they will alert every 3 hours) we expect to be in Alert Red.
This is just a tropical storm, but for those of us with much of our home outside, we are making preparations. On a normal day we lose water in the late afternoon and late evening (we have no tinaco). We also frequently lose electricity here in PaaMul, so we're used to being self contained. Rum? CHECK. Water? CHECK. (well, backup of cenote for showering and 4 garrafones of purificada) POWER? Just went out. Well, when it comes back on, I'll post this message.
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07-20-2008, 02:18 PM
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Sure is nice that Mother Nature Is going to give the Yucatan a wash and a blow dry before we get down there........Hope it passes through quickly for everyone down there..........
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07-20-2008, 04:07 PM
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ok, we're going out to get some water and basic supplies, just in case. Then we'll head to the beach again for a quick look at the waves...Jorden was having some fun in them, but he'll have to stay out now.
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[i]The way to gain a good reputation, is to endeavor to be what you desire to appear. - Socrates [i].. My Blog Where I Write Stuff .
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07-20-2008, 04:16 PM
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so is it a foregone conclusion that we'll lose power?
Is there anything more I should be doing that just getting water/pop/food in the place for the night? I mean, it seems okay out there for now. I think we'll just head out, get some stuff, and see what happens
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[i]The way to gain a good reputation, is to endeavor to be what you desire to appear. - Socrates [i].. My Blog Where I Write Stuff .
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07-20-2008, 04:26 PM
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